How much housing will be commissioned in 2024 in Poland

The number of apartments that will be put into operation in Poland in 2024 will be about 200 thousand. This will be the lowest figure since 2018. The mismatch between supply and demand will lead to higher prices at the beginning of the year.

The number of apartments that will be put into operation in Poland in 2024 will be about 200 thousand. This will be the lowest figure since 2018. The mismatch between supply and demand will lead to higher prices at the beginning of the year.

In 2024, housing supply in Poland is expected to decline. At the beginning of the year, premises will appear on the market, the construction of which began mainly in 2022, when the number of construction works started amounted to 200 thousand. This is 27% less than in 2021, and the worst result since 2017.

The end of 2023 led to an increase in the number of construction projects started, however, this will not affect the supply of finished apartments in 2024.

The number of apartments for which planning permission has been issued has also fallen from a record year in 2021. Then there were 310 thousand of them, but last year there were only 240 thousand. It is predicted that in 2024 the number of apartments commissioned will be about 200 thousand and this will be the lowest figure since 2018.

Such a small supply cannot satisfy the growing demand for housing. The increase in demand was due to the “Safe Loan 2%” program, an increase in real wages in the second half of the year, and a decrease in interest rates.

This has led to a recovery in the credit market after a weak 2022. In the second half of 2023, there were an average of 40,000 home loan applications per month, representing an increase of almost 200% compared to last year. At the beginning of 2024, demand for loans should decrease due to the suspension of the program.

The mismatch between supply and demand will cause prices to rise at the beginning of the year. In 2024, prices will continue to rise, especially in large cities, where the number of apartments for sale will be less than in 2022. The exact price increase in 2024 will depend on the lending program, the level of interest rates, inflation and the general market situation in Poland.

Moreover, sentiment in the construction sector is still not very good. This means that entrepreneurs will be more willing to build new apartments, but a significant recovery should not be expected. The overall economic climate index at the end of 2023 was -13.2. In 2022, the figure was -23.9 and was the last positive before the pandemic. This is the second worst result in Poland's economic sectors after industrial processing.

The main challenges for entrepreneurs are rising employment and material costs.

In developed European countries, housing supply is also falling. The number of new building permissions in Germany and France fell by 27% in the first half of 2023, and in the UK the number of houses built is expected to fall by more than 25% this year. In Sweden, the rate of new housing construction is less than one-third of what is considered necessary to meet demand.

Analysts estimate that 2024 will bring a slight increase in apartment prices in developed European markets, but too low supply will remain a problem, especially in large cities such as Paris or Berlin.

Source: website forsal.pl