Is it possible to bargain for housing in Warsaw?

To answer this question, consider the relationship between the offer price and the transaction price in the Warsaw real estate market for the period from 2006 to 2023. We will evaluate both the primary and secondary markets.

To answer this question, consider the relationship between the offer price and the transaction price in the Warsaw real estate market for the period from 2006 to 2023. We will evaluate both the primary and secondary markets.

We examined the change in prices from the stage of proposal from sellers to the stage of joint conclusion of transactions in the article “Analysis of the Warsaw real estate market for 2006 – 2023”. If necessary, you can contact it; it is posted on our website https://okeask.com/ru.

Especially for our readers, we made a full analysis for each quarter, calculating the difference between the offer price (Table 1) and the transaction price (Table 2) in zlotys, as well as the ratio of the transaction price to the offer price as a percentage.

The offer (offer) and transaction (transaction) prices are taken from the official website of the National Bank of Poland.

On the primary market

Over the past period since 2006, supply prices for new housing in Warsaw (Table 1) have increased by 233.5%, from PLN 5,873 per square meter to PLN 13,713 per square meter. The increase in the transaction price was almost the same - 234.3%. In money terms, the selling price per square meter of housing on the primary market over 18 years in the Polish capital has increased from 5,605 to 13,135 zł/sq.m.

Now let’s see what the difference is between the offer price and the transaction price on the primary real estate market in Warsaw by quarter for the period from 2006 to 2023. In each such time period, the offer price exceeded the transaction price from several tens to more than two thousand zlotys per square meter of area (we do not take negative indicators into account).

The greatest difference between the sale price and the price set by the developer for new housing on the primary market in Warsaw was in 2009 – PLN 2,408/sq.m. It was a true buyers' market, with supply vastly outstripping demand. Quarterly dynamics can be seen in Table 1, column 4.

Apart from 2009, 2010-2015 were also good for buyers. The ratio of the transaction price to the offer price in these years ranged from 85 to 95% (column 5 in Table 1), that is, it was possible to reduce the price in that period of time by 5-15 percent.

In recent years, the difference between the offer price and the transaction price has fluctuated around the figure of 500 zlotys, that is, currently, through negotiations with the seller of a new property, the price can be reduced by about half a thousand zlotys per square meter or up to 4 percent of the original price of newly built housing in Warsaw.

Table 1. The relationship between the offer price and the transaction price on the primary real estate market in Warsaw for the period from 2006 to 2023

On the secondary market

Over the past period since 2006, supply prices for secondary housing in Warsaw (Table 2) have increased by 199.4%, from PLN 7,179 per square meter to PLN 14,316 per square meter. The increase in the transaction price was almost the same - 195.7%. In money terms, the cost per square meter of housing on the secondary market over 18 years in the Polish capital has increased from 6,232 to 12,199 zł/sq.m.

Let's see what the difference is between the offer price and the transaction price on the secondary real estate market in Warsaw in each quarter for the period from 2006 to 2023. In each such time period, the offer price exceeded the transaction price from several hundred to one thousand eight hundred zlotys per square meter of area.

In the secondary market, the spread of sellers’ price requirements was not as large as in the primary market

The largest difference between the selling price and the price set by the seller on the secondary market in Warsaw was PLN 1,791/sq.m. in 2011. In 2009 – 2013 There was a buyer's market when supply far exceeded demand. Quarterly dynamics can be seen in Table 2, column 4.

During these years, the ratio of the transaction price to the offer price ranged from 77 to 89 percent (column 5 in Table 2), that is, it was possible to reduce the price in that period of time by 23-11 percent.

In recent years, the difference between the offer price and the transaction price has fluctuated around the figure of 1300-1400 zlotys, that is, currently, through negotiations with the seller of secondary real estate, the price can be reduced to approximately 10 percent of the original price of secondary housing in Warsaw.

Table 2. The relationship between the offer price and the transaction price on the secondary real estate market in Warsaw for the period from 2006 to 2023

Thus, we answer the question posed in the title of the article in the affirmative. Yes, you can and should bargain for housing in Warsaw. The result, apparently, will be within the savings of 4 percent of the original price when buying an apartment on the primary market and 10 percent if you buy real estate from the existing owner.

Good luck!