The situation on the housing market in Poland in November 2023

The situation on the housing market in Poland in November 2023

Let's look at the situation on the housing market in November 2023, according to the General Statistical Office of Poland, in terms of the number of projects being implemented, new building permits and apartments put into operation.

The number of apartments delivered in November 2023 is down year-over-year and year-on-year. At the same time, the number of issued construction permits continues to grow. Let's find out how the current construction of apartments in Poland is progressing.

The number of apartments delivered in November 2023 is down year-over-year and year-on-year. At the same time, the number of issued construction permits continues to grow. Let's find out how the current construction of apartments in Poland is progressing.

From the point of view of individual buyers, the dynamics of housing construction in Poland (supply) directly respond to the expectations and needs of buyers (demand). In other words, the fewer apartments and the greater the interest, the higher the prices for existing properties.

From the state’s point of view, the increase in the number of completed apartments and housing construction in general is a positive signal that generates profit in one of the most strategically important sectors of the economy. This, in turn, leads to more jobs in various sectors, as well as huge profits - especially during a housing crisis.

Let's take a look at what the housing market was like in November 2023.

Housing construction in Poland in November 2023.

In November 2023, 16,107 apartments were put into operation. A report from the General Statistical Office states that this is a decrease of 18.3% compared to projects started in October this year. At the same time, on an annualized basis, this is an increase of 32.9%.

Developers alone have launched more than 103,000 new construction projects since the start of the year, marking a relatively modest 4% year-on-year decline. However, November itself was quite lean, with construction starting on fewer than 11,000 units, down 11% from a month ago. Thus, the monthly volume of apartments commissioned by developers remains at a relatively average level, which in no way guarantees satisfaction of the demand generated by the mortgage subsidy program in recent months.

The graph clearly shows data on housing construction in Poland over the last 4 years in the form of the monthly number of apartments commissioned by developers, apartment construction started and building permits issued.

Graph. Housing construction in 2019-2023

Commissioning of apartments in November 2023

The number of apartments launched in November 2023 recorded an overall decrease of 3.3% compared to the previous month and a decrease of 27.3% year-on-year. In November 2023, developer-launched apartments added 12,591 units to the market, down 5% compared to November last year.

The statistics of completed apartments, which are the least significant for the development and assessment of the current economic situation, have continued to fluctuate monthly at a relatively constant level since the beginning of the year. November's overall result was almost 19,000 units, slightly worse month-on-month and 27% weaker year-on-year. In this case, such a significant regression is due to a very high base, due to the record result of the commissioning of apartments last year. In turn, the result since the beginning of the year is close to 200,000 commissioned premises, which is 7% worse than what was obtained for the same period last year.

The table shows statistics on housing construction in Poland in November 2023. General data is provided, including information on developers. The data is presented for completed apartments, apartments started construction and issued permits for the construction of apartments with changes by November 2022 and October 2023.

Table. Housing construction statistics in Poland in November 2023

New building permits in November 2023

Will the construction of apartments in Poland become more dynamic in the near future - especially in large centers such as Warsaw, Krakow or Poznan.

Office of the General Statistics Housing reports for November 2023 show that the number of building permits issued was lower than in October 2023. However, this result was better than in November 2022.

Thus, regarding construction permits issued in November 2023, the General Statistical Office reports a decrease of 13.9% (compared to October 2023) and an increase of almost 6.8% (compared to the number of permits issued by November 2022).

Developers have become more active in obtaining new permits. At the same time, the level they reached at 14 thousand administrative decisions means a significant drop of more than 17% compared to the previous month. However, in the case of this data category, it is very likely that developers will continue to actively seek new permits due to the prospect of changes to the technical conditions regulation, which will come into force from the second quarter of 2024.

Conclusions

November 2023 was marked by a decrease in the number of apartments started construction. It was also characterized by a decrease in the number of building permits issued and the number of apartments put into operation.

Interpreting the overall decline across all three categories of GSO housing data is not particularly difficult. This is largely due to their seasonality and should not mean that developers are moving away from investment activity, which is improving from month to month. With virtually no major exceptions, the last two months of each year are characterized by a significant decline in housing construction statistics, both for developers and individual investors. In this context, the results obtained in November should be considered quite satisfactory for the current time. The question is whether we should expect significant improvement from January 2024.

Source: website rynekpierwotny.pl