Housing construction forecast in 2024

Housing construction forecast in 2024

In 2023, 220.4 thousand apartments were put into operation in Poland. This is the worst figure since 2019. Last year, for the first time in history, fewer than a thousand cooperative apartments were built in Poland.

In 2023, 220.4 thousand apartments were put into operation in Poland. This is the worst figure since 2019. Last year, for the first time in history, fewer than a thousand cooperative apartments were built in Poland.

220,379 - this is how many apartments were put into operation in Poland in 2023, according to data from the General Statistical Office. This is 18 thousand apartments less than in the “record” year 2022, and also the lowest figure since 2019.

The number of apartments put into operation mainly includes premises intended for sale or rent (i.e. development) in the amount of about 136.5 thousand and individual housing (i.e. own construction) - about 79.6 thousand. The first indicator is the lowest since 2019, the second - since 2020.

Cooperative, municipal and social rental housing in Poland is still not successful - in total there are about 4.3 thousand apartments built in 2023. Although in the last two groups there is an increase compared to 2022 (about 3.3 thousand municipal, social rental and corporate apartments – this is the maximum since 2019). In 2023, less than a thousand cooperative apartments were put into operation for the first time. These data reflect the sale of cooperative apartments in accordance with the Housing Cooperatives Act.

Fewer construction starts, fewer permits issued

Also in terms of construction work started - about 189 thousand - 2023 was weak, and not only relative to 2022 (by about 11.2 thousand), but also compared to several previous years.

The decline in 2023 compared to 2022 is especially noticeable in individual construction - a decrease of about one-sixth was recorded here. In turn, the number of development projects started was approximately the same.

In 2023, there was a very significant decrease in the number of apartments for which construction permits were issued or a construction project application was submitted. Last year there were about 241.1 thousand, which is about 19% less than a year ago. This is almost 57 thousand units less than in 2022, and approximately 100 thousand less than in 2021. At the same time, in 2023, a 20% decline was recorded compared to the level of 2022, both in the developer market and in the case of individual construction.

It should be noted that in the second half of last year, leading indicators (permits and construction starts) began to grow. This signals a easing of supply-side problems.

The General Statistical Office also estimated that almost 802,000 housing units were under construction in Poland at the end of 2023, down almost 4% from a year ago.

In 2024-2025 there will be even fewer new apartments

The significant reduction in the number of permits issued and construction starts does not bode well for the number of apartments being delivered in the coming years (construction by developers usually takes about two years, and construction of their own, on average, twice as long). According to economists from the Polish Economic Institute, in 2024 the number of apartments put into operation will be about 200 thousand and this will be the lowest result since 2018. Data for 2025 may also turn out to be historically weak, with growing demand stimulated, among other things, by another credit subsidy program (Mieszkanie na Start). This may be the key to further dynamic growth in apartment prices. On the other hand, if such a drop in demand in the property market were relatively permanent over the long term, it could encourage developers to invest more.

The number of developer apartment starts in 2024 could fall even below 120,000, with only a slight recovery next year, according to the latest economists' forecasts. This growth in 2025 is expected to be particularly noticeable in the second half of the year and will be the result of a recovery in construction volumes that began in the second half of 2023.

In the second half of 2023, development companies began construction of almost 67 thousand new apartments. This is almost 23 thousand more premises than in the same period in 2022. This should lead to completion of these projects in 2025.