Apartments for sale in Poland in the third quarter of 2023

House prices in Poland increased in the third quarter

Among offers for the sale of new apartments, the average price per square meter increased by 10% on the primary market and 9 percent on the secondary market year on year. Thus, the rate of price growth was close to inflation, which in the third quarter amounted to 9.6%. The price increase is associated with a decrease in the number of new sales offers (by 5% y/y) with a significant increase in demand for apartments.

Among offers for the sale of new apartments, the average price per square meter increased by 10% on the primary market and 9 percent on the secondary market year on year. Thus, the rate of price growth was close to inflation, which in the third quarter amounted to 9.6%. The price increase is associated with a decrease in the number of new sales offers (by 5% y/y) with a significant increase in demand for apartments.

The average price of new offers on the secondary market in Warsaw is close to 16,000 zlotys per 1 m2. On the primary market of the capital, prices reach 14,900 zlotys per 1 m2 (table). On the primary market outside Warsaw, the highest prices for 1 m2 of apartments are in Gdynia – also 14.9 thousand zlotys. On the secondary market, besides Warsaw, the most expensive place is Krakow, where 1 m2 costs almost 14,000 zlotys.

Prices increased the most in Krakow and Wroclaw. In Krakow, prices on the primary market increased by 13% (q/q) and on the secondary market by 8% (q/q). Year-on-year growth was 18.9% and 14.4%, respectively. In Wroclaw, price growth on the secondary market amounted to 6.7% q/q. (13% y/y), and in the primary market 8% q/q. (13.8% y/y). Apartment prices grew fastest in large cities, with the exception of the primary market in Warsaw, where prices rose by less than 1%. The five most expensive cities in Poland saw quarterly growth of more than 4% in both markets.

In the third quarter of this year, the number of new offers on the apartment sales market decreased

In the cities analyzed, the average weekly number of new listings fell by almost 3% QoQ. and by 5% y/y. According to the Central Statistical Office, 15% fewer apartments were commissioned in the third quarter than a year earlier. The number of new offers fell the most in Warsaw and Krakow – by 14 and 13% qoq, respectively.

Warsaw remains the largest market for apartment sales, with an average weekly number of listings almost twice as high as, for example, Wroclaw, which ranks second.

In Warsaw, there were an average of 1,645 new listings per week for sale in the third quarter. The next places in the ranking were occupied by Wrocław (879) and Kraków (818), with an average number of offers. In other cities, the average weekly number of new listings ranged from 526 per week (Gdańsk) to 54 (Zielona Góra).

Offer of apartments by price categories

On average, across all cities, the number of new offers of apartments in the low price range from 400 thousand to 600 thousand zlotys decreased by 11.5% sq./sq.m. In Warsaw, Wroclaw, Krakow and Gdynia, this decrease was more than 15% q/q. The number of apartments decreased the most in Krakow – by 34.5%, in Warsaw – by 30.7%. Outside major cities, the number of offers increased slightly – by 2.3% sq.m.

Among apartments in the higher price range, such a significant decrease is not observed. The number of new offers of apartments in the price range of 600-800 thousand zlotys in Krakow and Warsaw decreased by several percent. In provincial cities, the number of apartment offers in this range increased by an average of 23.2 percent.

The change in the supply of apartments by price categories by city (in percentage, sq./sq.) is as follows.

Krakow. The number of offers of apartments costing 400-600 thousand zlotys decreased by 34.5%; The number of offers of apartments costing 600-800 thousand zlotys decreased by 6.8%.

Warsaw. The number of offers of apartments costing 400-600 thousand zlotys decreased by 30.7%; The number of offers of apartments costing 600-800 thousand zlotys decreased by 8.0%.

Wroclaw. The number of offers of apartments costing 400-600 thousand zlotys decreased by 18.7%; The number of offers of apartments costing 600-800 thousand zlotys increased by 18.9%.

Gdansk The number of offers of apartments costing 400-600 thousand zlotys increased by 9.9%; The number of offers of apartments costing 600-800 thousand zlotys increased by 23.2%.

Average for other cities. The number of offers of apartments costing 400-600 thousand zlotys increased by 2.3%; The number of offers of apartments costing 600-800 thousand zlotys increased by 23.2%.

The trends observed in the third quarter are expected to continue in the fourth quarter of 2023

The number of offers for the sale of new apartments will decrease due to the low activity of developers in the construction market and the long period of investment implementation. In 2022, the number of apartments under construction decreased by 27.8% y/y, and from January to September of this year - by 15.7%. Due to the fact that the average construction period for an apartment is 2 years, this means a decrease in the number of commercial offers in the 4th quarter. In the coming months, apartments will begin to appear on the market, construction of which began in 2022. If we assume that the demand for the purchase of apartments remains high, this means an increase in prices for apartments, at least at a level comparable to the current one (9 -10 percent y/y).

Change in market shares among new offers

The average share of the primary market among new offers exceeded the ceiling of 20%. This is due to the fact that the drop in the supply of apartments on the secondary market was greater than on the primary market. In Warsaw, Krakow, Gdansk, Wroclaw, Poznan and Lodz, the number of new listings on the secondary market decreased by an average of almost 3.5%, and on the primary market by approximately 2%.

The largest share of the primary market is in Gdańsk. In this city, the share increased from 26% in the second quarter to 38% in the third quarter. We also see a significant share of the primary market in Wroclaw and Katowice, where it amounts to 37 and 35% of new offers, respectively. On the other side of the rating are Olsztyn and Szczecin, where the share of new offers on the primary market is 4 and 9%, respectively. Large cities usually have a larger share of the primary market (for example, Krakow - 31, Poznan - 29%) than smaller ones. The exception here is Warsaw, where the share of the primary market is only 11%. There were 8 times more new offers of secondary apartments in the capital.

Source: website pie.net.pl