Analysis of the Warsaw real estate market for 2006 – 2023

08.02.2024

Analysis of the Warsaw real estate market for 2006 – 2023

Dear readers!

We offer you a quarterly analysis of the Warsaw real estate market for the period from 2006 to 2023. The analysis is presented in two versions – primary market and secondary market. Let's consider how prices changed from the stage of the sellers' offer to the stage of joint conclusion of transactions. Offer (offer) and transaction (transaction) prices are official, National Bank of Poland.

Especially for our readers, we made a complete analysis for each quarter, calculating the data in relation to the previous quarter, as well as to the starting point (Q3 2006).

So, the primary real estate market in Warsaw (Table 1).

If at the beginning of observation (Q3 2006) one square meter of housing on the primary real estate market in the capital of Poland was offered for PLN 5,873, then in Q2 2023 sellers already wanted PLN 13,713 for it. The increase in the offer price was 233.5%. In other words, sellers were already asking 2.3 times more per square meter.

The offer price increased in most periods. The maximum growth was 23.5% back in 2007. For the last 26 quarters (since the first quarter of 2017), the offer price in each quarter was higher than in the previous one.

Now about transaction prices.

Since the beginning of observation (III quarter of 2006), one square meter of housing in the capital of Poland was sold for 5,605 zlotys, and in the second quarter of 2023, sellers already received 13,135 zlotys for it. The transaction price increased by 234.3%, which is slightly more than the offer price index. That is, sellers received 2.34 times more per square meter than 18 years ago.

The transaction price also increased in most quarters, but not as clearly as in the case of offers. The maximum growth was 18.0% also in 2007, the maximum decrease was 7.4% in the first quarter of 2009. Over the past 14 quarters (since the first quarter of 2020), the transaction price was only 4 times less than in the previous quarter. The same applies to the last 2 quarters of 2023, and in the second quarter of 2023, the decrease in the transaction price was 5.3%.

Whether this is a trend or a temporary factor, the future will tell.

Statistics lovers can analyze in detail the quarterly data presented to you on the ratio of offer prices and transactions on the primary real estate market in Warsaw according to Table 1.

Table 1. Primary market. Average supply and transaction prices per square meter of housing in Warsaw for the period 3rd quarter of 2006 - 2nd quarter of 2023 (PLN/sq.m)

Quarter	Offer price	Growth compared to the previous quarter,%	Growth compared to the third quarter 2006,%	Transaction price	Growth compared to the previous quarter,%	Growth compared to the third quarter 2006,%
1	2	3	4	5	6	7
III 2006	5 873		233,5	5 605		234,3
IV 2006	6 095	103,8	225,0	6 186	110,4	212,3
I 2007	7 509	123,2	182,6	7 302	118,0	179,9
II 2007	8 000	106,5	171,4	7 523	103,0	174,6
III 2007	8 740	109,2	156,9	7 879	104,7	166,7
IV 2007	9 561	109,4	143,2	8 571	108,8	153,2
I 2008	9 427	98,6	145,5	8 535	99,6	153,9
II 2008	9 300	98,7	147,5	8 611	100,9	152,5
III 2008	9 235	99,3	148,5	8 325	96,7	157,8
IV 2008	9 821	106,3	139,6	8 149	94,6	161,2
I 2009	9 880	100,6	138,8	7 543	92,6	174,1
II 2009	9 859	99,8	130,1	7 461	98,2	176,0
III 2009	9 993	101,4	137,2	7 585	101,7	173,2
IV 2009	9 915	99,2	138,3	7 680	101,3	171,0
I 2010	9 119	92,0	150,4	8 173	106,4	160,7
II 2010	8 551	93,8	160,4	7 974	97,6	164,7
III 2010	8 295	97,0	165,3	7 940	99,6	165,4
IV 2010	8 133	98,0	168,6	7 441	93,7	176,5
I 2011	8 211	101,0	167,0	8 037	108,0	163,3
II 2011	8 396	102,3	163,3	7 527	93,7	174,5
III 2011	8 025	95,6	170,9	7 423	98,6	177,0
IV 2011	7 826	97,5	175,2	7 226	97,3	181,8
I 2012	7 879	100,7	174,0	6 967	96,4	188,5
II 2012	8 123	103,1	168,8	7 043	101,1	186,5
III 2012	7 875	96,9	174,1	6 757	95,9	194,4
IV 2012	7 695	97,7	178,2	6 466	95,7	203,1
I 2013	8 076	105,0	169,8	6 990	108,1	187,9
II 2013	8 081	100,0	169,7	7 018	100,4	187,2
III 2013	8 146	100,8	168,3	7 173	102,2	183,1
IV 2013	8 088	99,3	169,5	7 427	103,5	176,9
I 2014	8 005	98,9	171,3	7 298	98,3	180,0
II 2014	7 924	99,0	173,0	7 316	100,2	179,5
III 2014	7 819	98,7	175,4	7 446	101,8	176,4
IV 2014	7 691	98,4	178,3	7 315	98,2	179,6
I 2015	7 839	101,9	174,9	7 396	101,1	177,6
II 2015	7 872	100,4	174,2	7 510	101,5	174,9
III 2015	7 807	100,2	175,7	7 557	100,6	173,8
IV 2015	7 789	99,8	176,1	7 462	98,7	176,0
I 2016	7 878	101,1	174,1	7 639	102,4	171,9
II 2016	7 649	97,1	179,3	7 583	99,3	173,2
III 2016	7 772	101,6	176,4	7 696	101,5	170,7
IV 2016	7 638	98,3	179,5	7 686	99,9	170,9
I 2017	7 707	100,9	177,9	7 562	98,4	173,7
II 2017	7 740	100,4	177,1	7 683	101,6	171,0
III 2017	7 788	100,6	176,1	7 820	101,8	168,0
IV 2017	8 020	103,0	171,0	7 751	99,1	169,5
I 2018	8 201	102,3	167,2	7 965	102,8	164,9
II 2018	8 611	105,0	159,2	8 183	102,7	160,5
III 2018	8 888	103,2	154,3	8 538	104,3	153,8
IV 2018	9 020	101,5	150,0	8 565	100,3	153,4
I 2019	9 427	104,5	145,5	8 771	102,4	149,8
II 2019	9 591	101,7	143,0	8 932	101,8	147,1
III 2019	9 935	103,6	138,0	9 188	102,9	143,0
IV 2019	10 280	103,5	133,4	9 476	103,1	138,6
I 2020	10 610	103,2	129,2	9 819	103,6	133,8
II 2020	10 717	101,0	128,0	9 438	96,1	139,2
III 2020	10 735	100,2	127,7	10 183	107,9	129,6
IV 2020	10 750	100,1	127,6	10 240	100,6	128,3
I 2021	10 969	102,3	125,0	10 666	104,1	123,1
II 2021	11 362	103,6	120,7	10 696	100,3	122,8
III 2021	11 406	100,4	120,2	11 006	102,9	119,3
IV 2021	11 820	103,6	116,0	11 621	105,6	113,0
I 2022	12 517	105,9	109,6	12 381	106,5	106,1
II 2022	12 895	103,0	106,3	12 343	99,7	106,4
III 2022	12 912	100,1	106,2	12 727	103,1	103,2
IV 2022	13 009	100,8	105,4	12 836	100,9	102,3
I 2023	13 302	102,3	103,1	12 818	99,9	102,5
II 2023	13 713	103,1	100,0	13 135	94,7	100,0

About the secondary real estate market in Warsaw (Table 2).

If at the beginning of observation (Q3 2006) one square meter of housing on the secondary real estate market in the capital of Poland was offered for PLN 7,179, then in Q2 2023 sellers already wanted PLN 14,316 for it. The increase in the offer price was 199.4%. In other words, sellers were asking almost 2 times more per square meter.

The offer price on the secondary market changed more dynamically. In the period until 2017, the quarterly increase in supply was replaced by a decrease. Since 2017, the supply price has decreased only in 2 quarters.

Now about the price of transactions.

Since the beginning of observation (III quarter of 2006), one square meter of housing on the secondary market in the capital of Poland was sold for 6,232 zlotys, and in the second quarter of 2023, sellers already received 12,199 zlotys for it. The transaction price increased by 195.7%, which is slightly less than the increase in the offer price. That is, apartment owners received almost 2 times more per square meter than 18 years ago.

The transaction price also increased in most periods of time, but it was also subject to fluctuations, like the offer price. The maximum increase was 14.6% at the very beginning of observations, the maximum decrease was 7.1% in the first quarter of 2009. During the period from 2017 to 2023, the transaction price was only 3 times less than in the previous quarter. However, this decrease was allowed in 2 of the last 3 quarters, and in the first quarter of 2023 it amounted to 5.3%.

As in the case of the primary market, whether the trend is a decrease in the rate of quarterly growth in sales prices on the secondary market or whether it is a temporary factor, the future will show.

You can analyze in detail the quarterly data on the ratio of offer prices and transactions on the secondary real estate market in Warsaw in Table 2.

Table 2. Secondary market. Average supply and transaction prices per square meter of housing in Warsaw for the period 3rd quarter of 2006 - 2nd quarter of 2023 (PLN/sq.m)

Quarter	Offer price	Growth compared to the previous quarter,%	Growth compared to the third quarter 2006,%	Transaction price	Growth compared to the previous quarter,%	Growth compared to the third quarter 2006,%
1	2	3	4	5	6	7
III 2006	7 179		199,4	6 232		195,7
IV 2006	8 751	121,9	163,6	7 143	114,6	170,8
I 2007	9 316	106,5	153,7	7 730	108,2	157,8
II 2007	9 740	104,6	147,0	8 696	112,5	140,3
III 2007	10 078	103,5	140,3	9 137	105,1	133,5
IV 2007	9 952	98,7	142,0	9 034	98,9	135,0
I 2008	9 850	99,0	143,5	8 921	98,7	136,7
II 2008	9 783	99,3	144,5	8 546	95,8	142,7
III 2008	9 679	98,9	146,0	8 528	99,8	143,0
IV 2008	10 196	105,3	138,6	9 046	106,1	134,9
I 2009	9 626	94,4	146,9	8 406	92,9	145,1
II 2009	10 133	105,3	139,5	8 406	100,0	145,1
III 2009	9 705	95,8	146,6	7 949	94,6	153,5
IV 2009	9 671	99,6	148,0	8 497	106,9	143,6
I 2010	9 901	102,4	142,8	8 620	101,4	141,5
II 2010	9 982	100,8	143,4	8 933	103,6	136,6
III 2010	9 788	98,1	144,4	8 493	95,1	143,6
IV 2010	9 767	99,8	144,7	8 024	94,5	152,0
I 2011	9 706	99,4	147,5	7 915	98,6	154,1
II 2011	9 472	97,6	151,1	7 920	100,2	154,0
III 2011	9 397	99,2	147,6	7 920	100,0	154,0
IV 2011	9 363	99,6	152,9	7 889	99,6	154,6
I 2012	9 111	97,3	157,1	7 601	96,3	160,5
II 2012	9 035	99,2	158,4	7 522	99,0	162.2
III 2012	8 900	98,5	160,9	7 247	96,3	168,3
IV 2012	8 768	98,5	163,3	7 238	99,9	168,5
I 2013	8 606	98,2	166,3	6 687	92,4	182,4
II 2013	8 638	100,4	165,7	6 867	102,7	177,6
III 2013	8 544	98,9	167,6	6 971	101,5	175,0
IV 2013	8 627	101,0	165,9	7 189	103,1	169,7
I 2014	8 622	99,9	166,0	7 170	99,7	170,1
II 2014	8 691	100,8	164,7	7 332	102,3	166,4
III 2014	8 626	99,3	166,0	7 365	100,4	165,6
IV 2014	8 636	100,1	165,8	7 387	100,3	165,1
I 2015	8 608	99,7	166,3	7 335	99,3	166,3
II 2015	8 553	99,4	167,4	7 308	99,6	166,9
III 2015	8 565	100,1	167,1	7 447	101,9	163,8
IV 2015	8 655	101,0	165,4	7 401	99,4	164,8
I 2016	8 658	100,0	165,3	7 434	100,4	164,1
II 2016	8 721	100,7	164,2	7 355	98,5	165,9
III 2016	8 778	100,7	163,1	7 309	99,4	166,9
IV 2016	8 709	99,2	164,4	7 556	103,4	161,4
I 2017	8 816	101,2	162,4	7 429	98,3	164,2
II 2017	8 885	100,8	161,1	7 821	105,3	156,0
III 2017	9 009	101,4	158,1	8 020	102,5	152,1
IV 2017	9 235	102,5	155,0	8 054	100,4	151,5
I 2018	9 346	101,2	153,2	8 047	99,9	151,6
II 2018	9 347	100,0	153,2	8 394	104,3	145,3
III 2018	9 612	102,8	148,9	8 604	102,5	141,8
IV 2018	10 277	106,9	139,3	8 762	101,8	139,2
I 2019	10 287	100,1	139,2	8 985	102.5	135,8
II 2019	10 575	102,8	135,4	9 243	102,9	132,0
III 2019	10 816	102,3	132.4	9 457	102,3	129,0
IV 2019	11 192	103,5	127,9	9 812	103,8	124,3
I 2020	11 656	104,1	122,8	10 003	101,9	122,0
II 2020	11 521	98,8	124,3	10 288	102,8	118,6
III 2020	11 713	101,7	122,2	10 470	101,8	116,5
IV 2020	11 893	101,5	120.4	10 671	101,9	114,3
I 2021	12 221	102,8	117,1	10 879	101,9	112,1
II 2021	12 463	102,0	113,4	11 218	103,1	108.7
III 2021	12 953	103,3	109,1	11 585	103,3	105,3
IV 2021	13 305	102,7	107,6	11 845	102,2	103,0
I 2022	13 366	100,5	107,1	12 251	103,3	99,6
II 2022	14 073	105,3	101,7	12 714	103,8	95,9
III 2022	13 499	95,9	106.1	12 916	101,6	94,4
IV 2022	13 501	100,0	106,0	12 585	97,4	96,9
I 2023	13 802	102,2	103,7	11 916	94,7	102,3
II 2023	14 316	103,7	100,0	12 199	102,3	100,0

We will look at the relationship between supply and demand prices on the primary and secondary markets in Warsaw in the following article: https://okeask.com/en/category/poleznaya-informaciya/1700199314-is-it-possible-to-bargain-for-housing-in-warsaw

Analysis of the Warsaw real estate market for 2006 – 2023

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