The Real Estate Market in 2024: Price Increases, Land Issues, and Housing Affordability

Real Estate Prices in 2024:

• Developers predict an average price increase of 11%.

• In 2023, prices have already increased by 15%.

Sales and Offers:

• Developers expect sales to remain at the 2023 level.

• They plan to increase the housing supply by 71% in 2024 and by 42% in 2025.

• 53% of the housing under construction has a building permit.

Land Issues:

• Developers are facing difficulties in acquiring land for multi-family construction.

• Net land prices in good locations increased by 32% in 2023.

• 8% of developers do not have land, which could lead to them going out of business.

Situation in Large Cities:

• In Krakow, apartment prices have increased by 39% compared to 2023.

• The average price per square meter in Krakow is 15.6 thousand zlotys, in Warsaw - 17 thousand zlotys.

• In Radom, apartment prices are the lowest - 6.7 thousand zlotys per square meter.

Housing Affordability:

• Housing prices will continue to rise, but more slowly than in 2023.

• Developers are increasing supply, but demand may outpace it.

• Housing affordability is becoming a more serious problem, especially for people with low incomes.

Impact of the "Mieszkanie na start" Program:

• The government plans to introduce the "Mieszkanie na start" program, which is expected to increase housing affordability.

• The impact of the program on the market is still unclear.

Conclusions:

• 2024 will be a favorable year for sellers in the real estate market.

• People who plan to buy an apartment should do it as soon as possible, as prices will continue to rise.

Sources:

• NBP Report

• Analysis by Expander and Rentier.io