Analysis of the Warsaw real estate market for 2006 β 2023
2023-11-17 09:44:14
Analysis of the Warsaw real estate market for 2006 – 2023
Dear readers!
Dear readers!
We offer you a quarterly analysis of the Warsaw real estate market for the period from 2006 to 2023. The analysis is presented in two versions – primary market and secondary market. Let's consider how prices changed from the stage of the sellers' offer to the stage of joint conclusion of transactions. Offer (offer) and transaction (transaction) prices are official, National Bank of Poland.
Especially for our readers, we made a complete analysis for each quarter, calculating the data in relation to the previous quarter, as well as to the starting point (Q3 2006).
So, the primary real estate market in Warsaw (Table 1).
If at the beginning of observation (Q3 2006) one square meter of housing on the primary real estate market in the capital of Poland was offered for PLN 5,873, then in Q2 2023 sellers already wanted PLN 13,713 for it. The increase in the offer price was 233.5%. In other words, sellers were already asking 2.3 times more per square meter.
The offer price increased in most periods. The maximum growth was 23.5% back in 2007. For the last 26 quarters (since the first quarter of 2017), the offer price in each quarter was higher than in the previous one.
Now about transaction prices.
Since the beginning of observation (III quarter of 2006), one square meter of housing in the capital of Poland was sold for 5,605 zlotys, and in the second quarter of 2023, sellers already received 13,135 zlotys for it. The transaction price increased by 234.3%, which is slightly more than the offer price index. That is, sellers received 2.34 times more per square meter than 18 years ago.
The transaction price also increased in most quarters, but not as clearly as in the case of offers. The maximum growth was 18.0% also in 2007, the maximum decrease was 7.4% in the first quarter of 2009. Over the past 14 quarters (since the first quarter of 2020), the transaction price was only 4 times less than in the previous quarter. The same applies to the last 2 quarters of 2023, and in the second quarter of 2023, the decrease in the transaction price was 5.3%.
Whether this is a trend or a temporary factor, the future will tell.
Statistics lovers can analyze in detail the quarterly data presented to you on the ratio of offer prices and transactions on the primary real estate market in Warsaw according to Table 1.
Table 1. Primary market. Average supply and transaction prices per square meter of housing in Warsaw for the period 3rd quarter of 2006 - 2nd quarter of 2023 (PLN/sq.m)
|
Quarter
|
Offer price
|
Growth compared to the previous quarter,%
|
Growth compared to the third quarter 2006,% |
Transaction price
|
Growth compared to the previous quarter,% |
Growth compared to the third quarter 2006,% |
|
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
|
III 2006 |
5 873 |
|
233,5 |
5 605 |
|
234,3 |
|
IV 2006 |
6 095 |
103,8 |
225,0 |
6 186 |
110,4 |
212,3 |
|
I 2007 |
7 509 |
123,2 |
182,6 |
7 302 |
118,0 |
179,9 |
|
II 2007 |
8 000 |
106,5 |
171,4 |
7 523 |
103,0 |
174,6 |
|
III 2007 |
8 740 |
109,2 |
156,9 |
7 879 |
104,7 |
166,7 |
|
IV 2007 |
9 561 |
109,4 |
143,2 |
8 571 |
108,8 |
153,2 |
|
I 2008 |
9 427 |
98,6 |
145,5 |
8 535 |
99,6 |
153,9 |
|
II 2008 |
9 300 |
98,7 |
147,5 |
8 611 |
100,9 |
152,5 |
|
III 2008 |
9 235 |
99,3 |
148,5 |
8 325 |
96,7 |
157,8 |
|
IV 2008 |
9 821 |
106,3 |
139,6 |
8 149 |
94,6 |
161,2 |
|
I 2009 |
9 880 |
100,6 |
138,8 |
7 543 |
92,6 |
174,1 |
|
II 2009 |
9 859 |
99,8 |
130,1 |
7 461 |
98,2 |
176,0 |
|
III 2009 |
9 993 |
101,4 |
137,2 |
7 585 |
101,7 |
173,2 |
|
IV 2009 |
9 915 |
99,2 |
138,3 |
7 680 |
101,3 |
171,0 |
|
I 2010 |
9 119 |
92,0 |
150,4 |
8 173 |
106,4 |
160,7 |
|
II 2010 |
8 551 |
93,8 |
160,4 |
7 974 |
97,6 |
164,7 |
|
III 2010 |
8 295 |
97,0 |
165,3 |
7 940 |
99,6 |
165,4 |
|
IV 2010 |
8 133 |
98,0 |
168,6 |
7 441 |
93,7 |
176,5 |
|
I 2011 |
8 211 |
101,0 |
167,0 |
8 037 |
108,0 |
163,3 |
|
II 2011 |
8 396 |
102,3 |
163,3 |
7 527 |
93,7 |
174,5 |
|
III 2011 |
8 025 |
95,6 |
170,9 |
7 423 |
98,6 |
177,0 |
|
IV 2011 |
7 826 |
97,5 |
175,2 |
7 226 |
97,3 |
181,8 |
|
I 2012 |
7 879 |
100,7 |
174,0 |
6 967 |
96,4 |
188,5 |
|
II 2012 |
8 123 |
103,1 |
168,8 |
7 043 |
101,1 |
186,5 |
|
III 2012 |
7 875 |
96,9 |
174,1 |
6 757 |
95,9 |
194,4 |
|
IV 2012 |
7 695 |
97,7 |
178,2 |
6 466 |
95,7 |
203,1 |
|
I 2013 |
8 076 |
105,0 |
169,8 |
6 990 |
108,1 |
187,9 |
|
II 2013 |
8 081 |
100,0 |
169,7 |
7 018 |
100,4 |
187,2 |
|
III 2013 |
8 146 |
100,8 |
168,3 |
7 173 |
102,2 |
183,1 |
|
IV 2013 |
8 088 |
99,3 |
169,5 |
7 427 |
103,5 |
176,9 |
|
I 2014 |
8 005 |
98,9 |
171,3 |
7 298 |
98,3 |
180,0 |
|
II 2014 |
7 924 |
99,0 |
173,0 |
7 316 |
100,2 |
179,5 |
|
III 2014 |
7 819 |
98,7 |
175,4 |
7 446 |
101,8 |
176,4 |
|
IV 2014 |
7 691 |
98,4 |
178,3 |
7 315 |
98,2 |
179,6 |
|
I 2015 |
7 839 |
101,9 |
174,9 |
7 396 |
101,1 |
177,6 |
|
II 2015 |
7 872 |
100,4 |
174,2 |
7 510 |
101,5 |
174,9 |
|
III 2015 |
7 807 |
100,2 |
175,7 |
7 557 |
100,6 |
173,8 |
|
IV 2015 |
7 789 |
99,8 |
176,1 |
7 462 |
98,7 |
176,0 |
|
I 2016 |
7 878 |
101,1 |
174,1 |
7 639 |
102,4 |
171,9 |
|
II 2016 |
7 649 |
97,1 |
179,3 |
7 583 |
99,3 |
173,2 |
|
III 2016 |
7 772 |
101,6 |
176,4 |
7 696 |
101,5 |
170,7 |
|
IV 2016 |
7 638 |
98,3 |
179,5 |
7 686 |
99,9 |
170,9 |
|
I 2017 |
7 707 |
100,9 |
177,9 |
7 562 |
98,4 |
173,7 |
|
II 2017 |
7 740 |
100,4 |
177,1 |
7 683 |
101,6 |
171,0 |
|
III 2017 |
7 788 |
100,6 |
176,1 |
7 820 |
101,8 |
168,0 |
|
IV 2017 |
8 020 |
103,0 |
171,0 |
7 751 |
99,1 |
169,5 |
|
I 2018 |
8 201 |
102,3 |
167,2 |
7 965 |
102,8 |
164,9 |
|
II 2018 |
8 611 |
105,0 |
159,2 |
8 183 |
102,7 |
160,5 |
|
III 2018 |
8 888 |
103,2 |
154,3 |
8 538 |
104,3 |
153,8 |
|
IV 2018 |
9 020 |
101,5 |
150,0 |
8 565 |
100,3 |
153,4 |
|
I 2019 |
9 427 |
104,5 |
145,5 |
8 771 |
102,4 |
149,8 |
|
II 2019 |
9 591 |
101,7 |
143,0 |
8 932 |
101,8 |
147,1 |
|
III 2019 |
9 935 |
103,6 |
138,0 |
9 188 |
102,9 |
143,0 |
|
IV 2019 |
10 280 |
103,5 |
133,4 |
9 476 |
103,1 |
138,6 |
|
I 2020 |
10 610 |
103,2 |
129,2 |
9 819 |
103,6 |
133,8 |
|
II 2020 |
10 717 |
101,0 |
128,0 |
9 438 |
96,1 |
139,2 |
|
III 2020 |
10 735 |
100,2 |
127,7 |
10 183 |
107,9 |
129,6 |
|
IV 2020 |
10 750 |
100,1 |
127,6 |
10 240 |
100,6 |
128,3 |
|
I 2021 |
10 969 |
102,3 |
125,0 |
10 666 |
104,1 |
123,1 |
|
II 2021 |
11 362 |
103,6 |
120,7 |
10 696 |
100,3 |
122,8 |
|
III 2021 |
11 406 |
100,4 |
120,2 |
11 006 |
102,9 |
119,3 |
|
IV 2021 |
11 820 |
103,6 |
116,0 |
11 621 |
105,6 |
113,0 |
|
I 2022 |
12 517 |
105,9 |
109,6 |
12 381 |
106,5 |
106,1 |
|
II 2022 |
12 895 |
103,0 |
106,3 |
12 343 |
99,7 |
106,4 |
|
III 2022 |
12 912 |
100,1 |
106,2 |
12 727 |
103,1 |
103,2 |
|
IV 2022 |
13 009 |
100,8 |
105,4 |
12 836 |
100,9 |
102,3 |
|
I 2023 |
13 302 |
102,3 |
103,1 |
12 818 |
99,9 |
102,5 |
|
II 2023 |
13 713 |
103,1 |
100,0 |
13 135 |
94,7 |
100,0 |
About the secondary real estate market in Warsaw (Table 2).
If at the beginning of observation (Q3 2006) one square meter of housing on the secondary real estate market in the capital of Poland was offered for PLN 7,179, then in Q2 2023 sellers already wanted PLN 14,316 for it. The increase in the offer price was 199.4%. In other words, sellers were asking almost 2 times more per square meter.
The offer price on the secondary market changed more dynamically. In the period until 2017, the quarterly increase in supply was replaced by a decrease. Since 2017, the supply price has decreased only in 2 quarters.
Now about the price of transactions.
Since the beginning of observation (III quarter of 2006), one square meter of housing on the secondary market in the capital of Poland was sold for 6,232 zlotys, and in the second quarter of 2023, sellers already received 12,199 zlotys for it. The transaction price increased by 195.7%, which is slightly less than the increase in the offer price. That is, apartment owners received almost 2 times more per square meter than 18 years ago.
The transaction price also increased in most periods of time, but it was also subject to fluctuations, like the offer price. The maximum increase was 14.6% at the very beginning of observations, the maximum decrease was 7.1% in the first quarter of 2009. During the period from 2017 to 2023, the transaction price was only 3 times less than in the previous quarter. However, this decrease was allowed in 2 of the last 3 quarters, and in the first quarter of 2023 it amounted to 5.3%.
As in the case of the primary market, whether the trend is a decrease in the rate of quarterly growth in sales prices on the secondary market or whether it is a temporary factor, the future will show.
You can analyze in detail the quarterly data on the ratio of offer prices and transactions on the secondary real estate market in Warsaw in Table 2.
Table 2. Secondary market. Average supply and transaction prices per square meter of housing in Warsaw for the period 3rd quarter of 2006 - 2nd quarter of 2023 (PLN/sq.m)
|
Quarter |
Offer price |
Growth compared to the previous quarter,% |
Growth compared to the third quarter 2006,% |
Transaction price
|
Growth compared to the previous quarter,% |
Growth compared to the third quarter 2006,% |
|
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
|
III 2006 |
7 179 |
|
199,4 |
6 232 |
|
195,7 |
|
IV 2006 |
8 751 |
121,9 |
163,6 |
7 143 |
114,6 |
170,8 |
|
I 2007 |
9 316 |
106,5 |
153,7 |
7 730 |
108,2 |
157,8 |
|
II 2007 |
9 740 |
104,6 |
147,0 |
8 696 |
112,5 |
140,3 |
|
III 2007 |
10 078 |
103,5 |
140,3 |
9 137 |
105,1 |
133,5 |
|
IV 2007 |
9 952 |
98,7 |
142,0 |
9 034 |
98,9 |
135,0 |
|
I 2008 |
9 850 |
99,0 |
143,5 |
8 921 |
98,7 |
136,7 |
|
II 2008 |
9 783 |
99,3 |
144,5 |
8 546 |
95,8 |
142,7 |
|
III 2008 |
9 679 |
98,9 |
146,0 |
8 528 |
99,8 |
143,0 |
|
IV 2008 |
10 196 |
105,3 |
138,6 |
9 046 |
106,1 |
134,9 |
|
I 2009 |
9 626 |
94,4 |
146,9 |
8 406 |
92,9 |
145,1 |
|
II 2009 |
10 133 |
105,3 |
139,5 |
8 406 |
100,0 |
145,1 |
|
III 2009 |
9 705 |
95,8 |
146,6 |
7 949 |
94,6 |
153,5 |
|
IV 2009 |
9 671 |
99,6 |
148,0 |
8 497 |
106,9 |
143,6 |
|
I 2010 |
9 901 |
102,4 |
142,8 |
8 620 |
101,4 |
141,5 |
|
II 2010 |
9 982 |
100,8 |
143,4 |
8 933 |
103,6 |
136,6 |
|
III 2010 |
9 788 |
98,1 |
144,4 |
8 493 |
95,1 |
143,6 |
|
IV 2010 |
9 767 |
99,8 |
144,7 |
8 024 |
94,5 |
152,0 |
|
I 2011 |
9 706 |
99,4 |
147,5 |
7 915 |
98,6 |
154,1 |
|
II 2011 |
9 472 |
97,6 |
151,1 |
7 920 |
100,2 |
154,0 |
|
III 2011 |
9 397 |
99,2 |
147,6 |
7 920 |
100,0 |
154,0 |
|
IV 2011 |
9 363 |
99,6 |
152,9 |
7 889 |
99,6 |
154,6 |
|
I 2012 |
9 111 |
97,3 |
157,1 |
7 601 |
96,3 |
160,5 |
|
II 2012 |
9 035 |
99,2 |
158,4 |
7 522 |
99,0 |
162.2 |
|
III 2012 |
8 900 |
98,5 |
160,9 |
7 247 |
96,3 |
168,3 |
|
IV 2012 |
8 768 |
98,5 |
163,3 |
7 238 |
99,9 |
168,5 |
|
I 2013 |
8 606 |
98,2 |
166,3 |
6 687 |
92,4 |
182,4 |
|
II 2013 |
8 638 |
100,4 |
165,7 |
6 867 |
102,7 |
177,6 |
|
III 2013 |
8 544 |
98,9 |
167,6 |
6 971 |
101,5 |
175,0 |
|
IV 2013 |
8 627 |
101,0 |
165,9 |
7 189 |
103,1 |
169,7 |
|
I 2014 |
8 622 |
99,9 |
166,0 |
7 170 |
99,7 |
170,1 |
|
II 2014 |
8 691 |
100,8 |
164,7 |
7 332 |
102,3 |
166,4 |
|
III 2014 |
8 626 |
99,3 |
166,0 |
7 365 |
100,4 |
165,6 |
|
IV 2014 |
8 636 |
100,1 |
165,8 |
7 387 |
100,3 |
165,1 |
|
I 2015 |
8 608 |
99,7 |
166,3 |
7 335 |
99,3 |
166,3 |
|
II 2015 |
8 553 |
99,4 |
167,4 |
7 308 |
99,6 |
166,9 |
|
III 2015 |
8 565 |
100,1 |
167,1 |
7 447 |
101,9 |
163,8 |
|
IV 2015 |
8 655 |
101,0 |
165,4 |
7 401 |
99,4 |
164,8 |
|
I 2016 |
8 658 |
100,0 |
165,3 |
7 434 |
100,4 |
164,1 |
|
II 2016 |
8 721 |
100,7 |
164,2 |
7 355 |
98,5 |
165,9 |
|
III 2016 |
8 778 |
100,7 |
163,1 |
7 309 |
99,4 |
166,9 |
|
IV 2016 |
8 709 |
99,2 |
164,4 |
7 556 |
103,4 |
161,4 |
|
I 2017 |
8 816 |
101,2 |
162,4 |
7 429 |
98,3 |
164,2 |
|
II 2017 |
8 885 |
100,8 |
161,1 |
7 821 |
105,3 |
156,0 |
|
III 2017 |
9 009 |
101,4 |
158,1 |
8 020 |
102,5 |
152,1 |
|
IV 2017 |
9 235 |
102,5 |
155,0 |
8 054 |
100,4 |
151,5 |
|
I 2018 |
9 346 |
101,2 |
153,2 |
8 047 |
99,9 |
151,6 |
|
II 2018 |
9 347 |
100,0 |
153,2 |
8 394 |
104,3 |
145,3 |
|
III 2018 |
9 612 |
102,8 |
148,9 |
8 604 |
102,5 |
141,8 |
|
IV 2018 |
10 277 |
106,9 |
139,3 |
8 762 |
101,8 |
139,2 |
|
I 2019 |
10 287 |
100,1 |
139,2 |
8 985 |
102.5 |
135,8 |
|
II 2019 |
10 575 |
102,8 |
135,4 |
9 243 |
102,9 |
132,0 |
|
III 2019 |
10 816 |
102,3 |
132.4 |
9 457 |
102,3 |
129,0 |
|
IV 2019 |
11 192 |
103,5 |
127,9 |
9 812 |
103,8 |
124,3 |
|
I 2020 |
11 656 |
104,1 |
122,8 |
10 003 |
101,9 |
122,0 |
|
II 2020 |
11 521 |
98,8 |
124,3 |
10 288 |
102,8 |
118,6 |
|
III 2020 |
11 713 |
101,7 |
122,2 |
10 470 |
101,8 |
116,5 |
|
IV 2020 |
11 893 |
101,5 |
120.4 |
10 671 |
101,9 |
114,3 |
|
I 2021 |
12 221 |
102,8 |
117,1 |
10 879 |
101,9 |
112,1 |
|
II 2021 |
12 463 |
102,0 |
113,4 |
11 218 |
103,1 |
108.7 |
|
III 2021 |
12 953 |
103,3 |
109,1 |
11 585 |
103,3 |
105,3 |
|
IV 2021 |
13 305 |
102,7 |
107,6 |
11 845 |
102,2 |
103,0 |
|
I 2022 |
13 366 |
100,5 |
107,1 |
12 251 |
103,3 |
99,6 |
|
II 2022 |
14 073 |
105,3 |
101,7 |
12 714 |
103,8 |
95,9 |
|
III 2022 |
13 499 |
95,9 |
106.1 |
12 916 |
101,6 |
94,4 |
|
IV 2022 |
13 501 |
100,0 |
106,0 |
12 585 |
97,4 |
96,9 |
|
I 2023 |
13 802 |
102,2 |
103,7 |
11 916 |
94,7 |
102,3 |
|
II 2023 |
14 316 |
103,7 |
100,0 |
12 199 |
102,3 |
100,0 |
We will look at the relationship between supply and demand prices on the primary and secondary markets in Warsaw in the following article: https://okeask.com/en/category/poleznaya-informaciya/1700199314-is-it-possible-to-bargain-for-housing-in-warsaw
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