The cost of real estate in Poland in the third quarter of 2023

According to data from the National Bank of Poland, in the third quarter of 2023 there was an increase in real estate prices. In quarterly terms in the largest Polish cities it ranged from 2 to 6 percent. The main reason is increased demand caused by the “Safe Loan 2%” program. This trend began in the second quarter of this year and continues to this day.

According to data from the National Bank of Poland, in the third quarter of 2023 there was an increase in real estate prices. In quarterly terms in the largest Polish cities it ranged from 2 to 6 percent. The main reason is increased demand caused by the “Safe Loan 2%” program. This trend began in the second quarter of this year and continues to this day.

Primary market

In the third quarter of 2023, compared to the second quarter of 2023, the average amount paid for new housing in Poland increased noticeably. For Warsaw, quarterly growth was 6.4%. The average transaction price in Warsaw for new apartments was, on average, already PLN 13,980/sq.m. The average transaction price increased by more than 4% (q/q) in Poznaniu, Krakowie, Katowicach, as well as in Gdyni (Table 1). The highest increase in the amount paid for apartments in the developer standard - by 8% compared to the second quarter of 2023 - occurred in the city of Olsztynie.

Prices decreased on a quarterly basis in only 4 cities out of 17. Most of all – in the city of Bydgoszcz. By the way, this is where the lowest cost per square meter of housing in Poland was recorded - PLN 8,205/sq.m.

Regarding prices compared to the third quarter of 2022. It should be noted that they grew the most in the cities of Rzeszów (16.0%), Olsztyn (14.6%), Wrocław (11.3%), Opole (11.2%). As you can see, most of them are small towns (except for Wrocławia). In Warsaw, prices also increased significantly over the year – by 9.8%.

Only in 2 cities - Szczecinie and the already mentioned Bydgoszczu - housing prices decreased over the year.

Since we are talking about average rates, this significant increase can also be explained, at least in part, by a larger share of transactions with smaller apartments falling under the 2% Secure Loan program. Smaller apartments have a lower overall cost, but have a higher price per square foot.

Secondary market

There was also an increase in prices on the secondary market. The largest increase in transaction prices over the last quarter was in the cities of Szczecin and Łódź – 9.0% and 6.3%, respectively (Table 2). The amounts paid in Warsaw for apartments on the secondary market increased by 3.2%. The cost of secondary housing in Warsaw is the highest in Poland - PLN 12,629/sq.m.

Only in one city – Bydgoszczu – the price per square meter of secondary housing decreased. The cheapest resale apartments are in the cities of Bydgoszcz (6532 PLN/sq.m.) and Kielce (6562 PLN/sq.m.).

Now about prices compared to the third quarter of 2022. Here the growth was not as great as in the primary market. The cost per square meter increased the most in the cities of Szczecin (11.6%), Katowice (8.9%), Rzeszów (7.3%), Kraków (6.8%).

The cost of secondary housing has fallen in 5 cities. Among them, analysts point to Warsaw (a decrease of 2.2%).

Conclusion

In Poland, both on the primary market and on the secondary market, the growth in housing prices has clearly accelerated. Thus, in the second quarter of 2023, the average transaction price for the sale of new housing in Warsaw increased by only 3.2 percent (recall that in the third quarter the increase was already 6.4%), in Krakow - by 5.6% ( was 4.9%), and in Wroclaw - by 4.6% (in the third quarter 2.8%).

An increase in the number of transactions with apartments falling under the “Safe Loan 2%” program, a slight increase in real estate prices at the turn of 2022 and 2023 and a low growth base led to the fact that on an annual basis in almost all analyzed cities, and, therefore, in the country as a whole, we are talking about a clear increase in the average amounts paid for apartments.